Denise S. W&C blog: The Future is Now!!!!

"Warming of the climate systems is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations on increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average." (1)

This is an official statement from the Synthesis Report, Climate Change 2007, produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). According to the Third Assessment Report generated by the IPCC, the 100 year linear trend from 1906 through 2005 is a 0.75 degrees Celsius increase of temperature world wide. This impacts the state of Florida, regionally, with more hot days or heat waves, more frequent hot extremes, heavy precipitation and increased intensity of tropical cyclones.

Observed changes in global surface temperature, global average sea level from tide gauge and Northern Hemisphere snow cover. All differences are relative to averages from 1961-1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal averages while circle represent yearly values. (1)

The majority of Florida's low lying coastal communities will be impacted by sea level rise from climate change. Within these communities the mangrove ecosystems and salt marches will be distressed by sea level rise. The increased mean global temperature equates to a significant increase in the mean ocean temperature, where most flora and fauna systems have slow adaptive capabilities. The 1-3 degrees Celsius increase is projected to result in 'more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals.' (1)

To support and update these findings the IPCC presented; The Special Report on Managing Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). The opening pages define some core concepts like; climate extreme, adaptation, resilience, vulnerability, transformation and disaster risk management. This language collaborates the predictions for climate change in Florida and how the low-lying state will have to prepare and adjust their current action plans along with their disaster assistance in the near future and well into the twenty first century. (2)

Along with model projections of substantial warming in temperature, heavy rainfall in tropical regions and increased intensity of tropical cyclones; the biggest concern is the increase in extreme sea levels. The sea level impacts erosion, shoreline change and saltwater invasion into Florida aquifers. With just 2 feet of sea level rise, 1.5 million people will be under water. Some 130 billion dollars of residential real estate will be lost, half of all Florida's beaches, two nuclear reactors, three prisons, 37 nursing homes and on and on and on.....

Coastal Florida and Everglades-Sea Level Rise Maps

Current depiction of Florida's Atlantic Coast, the Florida Keys and Florida's Gulf Coast. (3)

Sea level rise 3 meters!!!! With only a few meters, thousands of acres would be inundated with water. Any area south of Key Colony is under water. The extensive canal system dubbed 'the Venice of the Americas' south of Lake Okeechobee is overflowing. Then finally, the Florida Everglades has extensive intrusion of saltwater. (3)

Finally, sea level rise 6 meters!!!! One picture is worth a thousand words. (3)

With the majority of Florida being less than 12 feet above sea level and home to over 5 million people, the economic consequences are unmeasurable. Disaster losses alone have equated from a few billion US dollars to over 200 billion US dollars with the highest value being in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast. Tourism is one of the biggest economic drivers in Florida. The threat of receding beach area, riddled with storm surged, abandoned property will certainly have a negative influence on any tourism industry in the 'Sunshine State.' Not to mention that the beaches hold critical habitat for many marine animals. Both short and long term sustainability of the Florida beaches are effected by sea level rise and how frequently the sand is replenished.

The effects of storm surge on coastal areas in Florida. (4)

Hal Wanless, chairman of the Geological Sciences Department at the University of Miami and advisor to the Dade County Commission states;

"the impact of 5 foot sea level rise would mean that all of Miami Beach and nearly all of the Florida Keys would be gone. Much of Miami-Dade County and much of Broward County would be underwater." (5)

There will be some tough sacrifices ahead for Florida. It will be increasingly risky to live in Florida. Eventually the roads in south Florida will have to be raised and with a five foot sea level rise, the city of Miami will be virtually an island. The idea of keeping the sea at bay through levees and pumps like the city of New Orleans is not an option. The geography of the area is built on porous limestone that allows rainwater to soak in ---literally this porous rock allows the rising water table to percolate up to the surface. "If we have sea level rise, it will come right through" said Wanless" (5)

Coastal planning and having a comprehensive regional plan for adaption strategies is imperative. Some coastal areas have developed plans, however a large percentage of the coastal communities have not taken on such a monumental task. The new reality is about bringing together the large counties in the state to lead the way. Representatives in South Florida's four counties recently met and agreed to work together to cope with the forth coming issues of climate change and sea level rise. Miami-Dade County commissioner Kate Sorenson says that so far, communities have mostly focused on what they can do to stop contributing----but now it's time to think about how we will adapt to the change. (6)

Sea level rise, THE FUTURE IS NOW!!!